V-Lab
Bleichroeder Acquisition Corp II APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
7.17%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
8.08%
increased by 0.91%
1 Month
8.49%
increased by 1.32%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. The volatility power δ = 3.00 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0756 | 1.75* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0547 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1792 | 2.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | 0.00 |
δ power Transformation power | 3.0000 | 3.71*** |
Persistence:
0.528
Half-life:
1 days
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