V-Lab
Community West Bancshares Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
23.68%
1 Week
23.99%
1 Month
25.14%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 3, 1995 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1475171 trading days (~5853.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 2.70 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 32% more than positive returns
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0519 | 11.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0513 | 18.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9298 | 390.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0507 | 4.37*** |
δ power Transformation power | 2.7020 | 39.01*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1475171 days
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