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V-Lab

Community West Bancshares Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026

1 Day

23.68%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Week

23.99%

increased by 0.15%

1 Month

25.14%

increased by 1.30%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:15 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Community West Bancshares APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 3, 1995 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1475171 trading days (~5853.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 2.70 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 32% more than positive returns

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0519
11.54***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0513
18.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9298
390.67***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0507
4.37***
δ

power

Transformation power

2.7020
39.01***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1475171 days