V-Lab
Community West Bancshares MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
23.88%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Week
26.96%
increased by 2.53%
1 Month
32.09%
increased by 7.66%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 3, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1804 | 22.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6630 | 48.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0230 | 1.69* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1161 | 3.18*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0600 | 3.31*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9264 | 39.92*** |
Persistence:
0.855
Half-life:
4 days
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