V-Lab
Appian Corp Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
56.95%
1 Week
55.32%
1 Month
52.17%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 25, 2017 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. The volatility power δ = 0.92 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3443 | 1.77* |
| αARCH | 0.2590 | 11.00*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6724 | 20.99*** |
| γleverage | -0.0715 | -1.85* |
| δpower | 0.9170 | 2.67*** |
0.878
Persistence5d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3443 | 1.77* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2590 | 11.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6724 | 20.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0715 | -1.85* |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9170 | 2.67*** |
Persistence:
0.878
Half-life:
5 days
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