V-Lab
CVS Health Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
40.83%
increased by 8.88%
1 Week
40.46%
increased by 8.51%
1 Month
39.44%
increased by 7.49%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0178 | 6.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8842 | 135.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0826 | 16.94*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0041 | 2.14** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0138 | 4.85*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9854 | 293.96*** |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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