Chemung Financial Corp EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
24.73%
decreased by 2.00%
1 Week
26.19%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Month
30.64%
increased by 3.91%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 1996 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1181 | 25.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2992 | 40.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9343 | 306.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0009 | -0.09 |
Persistence:
0.934
Half-life:
10 days
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