V-Lab
AT&T Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
21.98%
1 Week
22.17%
1 Month
22.87%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 09:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 73% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.15 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0269 | 5.54*** |
| αARCH | 0.0716 | 9.87*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9284 | 123.06*** |
| γleverage | 0.2339 | 3.08*** |
| δpower | 1.1491 | 6.93*** |
0.987
Persistence51d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0269 | 5.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0716 | 9.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9284 | 123.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2339 | 3.08*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1491 | 6.93*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
51 days
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