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V-Lab

AT&T Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

21.98%

decreased by 0.83%

1 Week

22.17%

decreased by 0.64%

1 Month

22.87%

increased by 0.06%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 09:56 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/05/2024

to

10/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AT&T Inc APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 73% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.15 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 73% more than positive returnsδ = 1.15 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0269
5.54***
αARCH0.0716
9.87***
βGARCH0.9284
123.06***
γleverage0.2339
3.08***
δpower1.1491
6.93***

0.987

Persistence

51d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0269
5.54***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0716
9.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9284
123.06***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2339
3.08***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1491
6.93***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

51 days