V-Lab
Vivakor Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
162.71%
decreased by 28.77%
1 Week
167.49%
decreased by 23.99%
1 Month
182.52%
decreased by 8.96%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 15, 2022 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.16 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 24-day half-lifev = 3.16 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 219.3425 | 0.77 |
| αARCH | 0.2134 | 8.65*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9718 | 27.93*** |
| νDF | 3.1551 | 5.77*** |
0.972
Persistence24d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 219.3425 | 0.77 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2134 | 8.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9718 | 27.93*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.1551 | 5.77*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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