Vivakor Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
632.54%
decreased by 84.70%
1 Week
661.14%
decreased by 56.10%
1 Month
1,026.29%
increased by 309.05%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 15, 2022 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 98% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3138 | 6.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5173 | 26.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3070 | 3.49*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 3.37*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0773 | 2.95*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9227 | 39.88*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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