V-Lab
Versamet Royalties Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
57.35%
decreased by 0.83%
1 Week
58.02%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Month
60.02%
increased by 1.84%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.90 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-lifev = 7.90 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 16.8617 | 0.47 |
| αARCH | 0.0366 | 1.35 |
| βGARCH | 0.9580 | 1.55 |
| νDF | 7.9036 | 0.04 |
0.958
Persistence16d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 16.8617 | 0.47 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0366 | 1.35 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9580 | 1.55 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.9036 | 0.04 |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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