V-Lab
Versamet Royalties Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
55.69%
decreased by 1.12%
1 Week
56.22%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Month
57.91%
increased by 1.10%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 2026 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.10 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 21-day half-lifev = 8.10 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 16.0869 | 0.48 |
| αARCH | 0.0353 | 1.60 |
| βGARCH | 0.9678 | 2.87*** |
| νDF | 8.0965 | 0.04 |
0.968
Persistence21d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 16.0869 | 0.48 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0353 | 1.60 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9678 | 2.87*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.0965 | 0.04 |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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