V-Lab
Versamet Royalties Corp APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
67.52%
increased by 2.65%
1 Week
67.61%
increased by 2.74%
1 Month
67.67%
increased by 2.80%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-lifeδ = 0.50 · sub-quadratic power
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7739 | 0.75 |
| αARCH | 0.0695 | 0.77 |
| βGARCH | 0.5847 | 2.10** |
| γleverage | 1.0000 | 113.56*** |
| δpower | 0.5000 | 0.67 |
0.625
Persistence1d
Half-lifeσ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7739 | 0.75 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0695 | 0.77 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5847 | 2.10** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 113.56*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 0.67 |
Persistence:
0.625
Half-life:
1 days
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