Alpha Compute Corp APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
222.45%
decreased by 18.49%
1 Week
225.93%
decreased by 15.01%
1 Month
236.43%
decreased by 4.51%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 2020 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. The volatility power δ = 1.11 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 3.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2276 | 8.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7724 | 31.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1087 | -1.52 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1105 | 9.31*** |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
15 days
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