Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
26.74%
1 Week
27.01%
1 Month
27.98%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 1999 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 171% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.38 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0353 | 4.45*** |
| αARCH | 0.0677 | 7.74*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9311 | 117.74*** |
| γleverage | 0.3478 | 3.80*** |
| δpower | 1.3757 | 7.46*** |
0.990
Persistence66d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0353 | 4.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0677 | 7.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9311 | 117.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3478 | 3.80*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.3757 | 7.46*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
66 days
Other Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on Equities