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Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

26.74%

increased by 0.15%

1 Week

27.01%

increased by 0.42%

1 Month

27.98%

increased by 1.39%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:15 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 4, 1999 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 171% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.38 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 171% more than positive returnsδ = 1.38 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0353
4.45***
αARCH0.0677
7.74***
βGARCH0.9311
117.74***
γleverage0.3478
3.80***
δpower1.3757
7.46***

0.990

Persistence

66d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0353
4.45***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0677
7.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9311
117.74***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3478
3.80***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.3757
7.46***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

66 days