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Johnson & Johnson GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026

1 Day

26.27%

increased by 5.32%

1 Week

26.23%

increased by 5.28%

1 Month

26.08%

increased by 5.13%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/13/2024

to

10/13/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Johnson & Johnson GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.87 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~84 daysv = 5.87 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.2205
1.07
αARCH0.0794
9.58***
βGARCH0.9917
122.85***
νDF5.8665
2.35**

0.992

Persistence

84d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.2205
1.07
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0794
9.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9917
122.85***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.8665
2.35**

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

84 days