V-Lab
QTREX Quantum Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
140.81%
increased by 34.30%
1 Week
136.60%
increased by 30.09%
1 Month
125.57%
increased by 19.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:58 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2021 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.19 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-lifev = 3.19 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 46.2608 | 0.88 |
| αARCH | 0.1280 | 3.26*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9229 | 10.85*** |
| νDF | 3.1908 | 1.78* |
0.923
Persistence9d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 46.2608 | 0.88 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1280 | 3.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9229 | 10.85*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.1908 | 1.78* |
Persistence:
0.923
Half-life:
9 days
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