V-Lab
Semilux International Ltd -Redh AGARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
1,361.24%
1 Week
3,248.80%
1 Month
333,127.47%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2022 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.947 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 1.3163 | 4.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6305 | 13.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0708 | 14.92*** |
Persistence:
1.947
Half-life:
-
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