Alpha Compute Corp AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
105.67%
decreased by 6.64%
1 Week
130.75%
increased by 18.44%
1 Month
175.96%
increased by 63.65%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 2020 to Oct 16, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 15.0000 | 3.14*** |
| αARCH | 0.3411 | 3.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5713 | 13.27*** |
| γleverage | -2.2486 | -1.39 |
0.912
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 15.0000 | 3.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3411 | 3.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5713 | 13.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -2.2486 | -1.39 |
Persistence:
0.912
Half-life:
8 days
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