V-Lab
Contextlogic Holdings Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
19.99%
1 Week
23.50%
1 Month
36.75%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 16, 2020 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.039 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1593 | 4.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2178 | 27.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8211 | 216.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5681 | 4.12*** |
Persistence:
1.039
Half-life:
-
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