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V-Lab

Contextlogic Holdings Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

19.99%

decreased by 0.87%

1 Week

23.50%

increased by 2.64%

1 Month

36.75%

increased by 15.89%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Contextlogic Holdings Inc AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 16, 2020 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.039 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1593
4.32***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2178
27.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8211
216.87***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5681
4.12***

Persistence:

1.039

Half-life:

-