Global Mofy AI Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
32.14%
increased by 0.15%
1 Week
36.33%
increased by 4.34%
1 Month
38.05%
increased by 6.06%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 10, 2023 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1068 | 2.17** |
| αARCH | 0.2809 | 2.93*** |
| βGARCH | 0.1931 | 0.91 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 9.6044 | 0.29 |
| γ2 | -44.8244 | -0.90 |
| γ3 | 80.7708 | 3.00*** |
| γ4 | -72.7993 | -4.04*** |
| γ5 | 31.3562 | 2.33** |
| γ6 | -6.1267 | -0.50 |
| γ7 | 13.2937 | 0.78 |
| γ8 | -15.8880 | -0.85 |
| γ9 | 19.2323 | 1.08 |
| γ10 | -78.9796 | -2.39** |
0.474
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1068 | 2.17** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2809 | 2.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1931 | 0.91 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 9.6044 | 0.29 |
| γ2 | -44.8244 | -0.90 |
| γ3 | 80.7708 | 3.00*** |
| γ4 | -72.7993 | -4.04*** |
| γ5 | 31.3562 | 2.33** |
| γ6 | -6.1267 | -0.50 |
| γ7 | 13.2937 | 0.78 |
| γ8 | -15.8880 | -0.85 |
| γ9 | 19.2323 | 1.08 |
| γ10 | -78.9796 | -2.39** |
Persistence:
0.474
Half-life:
1 days
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