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V-Lab

Global Mofy AI Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

164.65%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Week

191.29%

increased by 26.37%

1 Month

203.73%

increased by 38.81%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Global Mofy AI Ltd SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 10, 2023 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1425
2.42**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2832
3.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2476
1.26
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ16.9050
0.24
γ2-35.9923
-0.82
γ371.4334
2.82***
γ4-73.0572
-4.24***
γ538.3504
2.60***
γ6-4.1929
-0.36
γ7-3.1440
-0.31
γ813.8750
0.93
γ9-41.9748
-1.99**

Persistence:

0.531

Half-life:

1 days