V-Lab
Global Mofy AI Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
595.46%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
693.00%
increased by 97.18%
1 Month
731.40%
increased by 135.58%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 10, 2023 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2012 | 2.32** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3027 | 2.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1613 | 0.85 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 10.9058 | 0.35 |
| γ2 | -43.4609 | -0.94 |
| γ3 | 77.3719 | 2.97*** |
| γ4 | -75.6132 | -4.32*** |
| γ5 | 38.5457 | 2.81*** |
| γ6 | -9.0270 | -0.86 |
| γ7 | 11.4758 | 0.92 |
| γ8 | -15.2206 | -0.86 |
| γ9 | 29.3665 | 1.20 |
Persistence:
0.464
Half-life:
1 days
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