V-Lab
Global Mofy AI Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
164.65%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
191.29%
increased by 26.37%
1 Month
203.73%
increased by 38.81%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 10, 2023 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1425 | 2.42** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2832 | 3.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2476 | 1.26 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 6.9050 | 0.24 |
| γ2 | -35.9923 | -0.82 |
| γ3 | 71.4334 | 2.82*** |
| γ4 | -73.0572 | -4.24*** |
| γ5 | 38.3504 | 2.60*** |
| γ6 | -4.1929 | -0.36 |
| γ7 | -3.1440 | -0.31 |
| γ8 | 13.8750 | 0.93 |
| γ9 | -41.9748 | -1.99** |
Persistence:
0.531
Half-life:
1 days
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