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V-Lab
V-Lab

Global Mofy AI Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

32.14%

increased by 0.15%

1 Week

36.33%

increased by 4.34%

1 Month

38.05%

increased by 6.06%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Global Mofy AI Ltd SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 10, 2023 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1068
2.17**
αARCH0.2809
2.93***
βGARCH0.1931
0.91
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ19.6044
0.29
γ2-44.8244
-0.90
γ380.7708
3.00***
γ4-72.7993
-4.04***
γ531.3562
2.33**
γ6-6.1267
-0.50
γ713.2937
0.78
γ8-15.8880
-0.85
γ919.2323
1.08
γ10-78.9796
-2.39**

0.474

Persistence

1d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1068
2.17**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2809
2.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1931
0.91
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ19.6044
0.29
γ2-44.8244
-0.90
γ380.7708
3.00***
γ4-72.7993
-4.04***
γ531.3562
2.33**
γ6-6.1267
-0.50
γ713.2937
0.78
γ8-15.8880
-0.85
γ919.2323
1.08
γ10-78.9796
-2.39**

Persistence:

0.474

Half-life:

1 days