V-Lab
Global Mofy AI Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
254.20%
decreased by 1.46%
1 Week
297.55%
increased by 41.89%
1 Month
317.27%
increased by 61.61%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 10, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1432 | 2.42** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2985 | 2.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2242 | 1.23 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 6.0701 | 0.21 |
| γ2 | -34.6179 | -0.79 |
| γ3 | 70.5828 | 2.79*** |
| γ4 | -72.7886 | -4.22*** |
| γ5 | 38.8953 | 2.64*** |
| γ6 | -6.0665 | -0.53 |
| γ7 | 1.3612 | 0.14 |
| γ8 | 3.5069 | 0.31 |
| γ9 | -16.0684 | -1.53 |
Persistence:
0.523
Half-life:
1 days
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