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Global Mofy AI Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026

1 Day

135.16%

increased by 15.61%

1 Week

143.09%

increased by 23.54%

1 Month

147.49%

increased by 27.94%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Global Mofy AI Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 10, 2023 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1162
2.52**
αARCH0.3141
3.09***
βGARCH0.2560
1.87*
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ12.2834
0.09
γ2-27.3724
-0.68
γ364.6531
2.67***
γ4-70.7575
-4.26***
γ541.5496
2.69***
γ6-9.5302
-0.71
γ75.1134
0.50
γ8-5.3430
-0.62
γ9-6.0592
-0.83

0.570

Persistence

1d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1162
2.52**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3141
3.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2560
1.87*
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ12.2834
0.09
γ2-27.3724
-0.68
γ364.6531
2.67***
γ4-70.7575
-4.26***
γ541.5496
2.69***
γ6-9.5302
-0.71
γ75.1134
0.50
γ8-5.3430
-0.62
γ9-6.0592
-0.83

Persistence:

0.570

Half-life:

1 days