Global Mofy AI Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
226.97%
increased by 7.23%
1 Week
247.06%
increased by 27.32%
1 Month
254.17%
increased by 34.43%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 10, 2023 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2830 | 2.27** |
| αARCH | 0.2582 | 2.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.1415 | 0.85 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 13.0925 | 0.40 |
| γ2 | -47.0045 | -0.97 |
| γ3 | 78.3488 | 2.98*** |
| γ4 | -72.1136 | -4.19*** |
| γ5 | 31.8854 | 2.47** |
| γ6 | -3.7315 | -0.35 |
| γ7 | 5.0125 | 0.35 |
| γ8 | 6.2982 | 0.34 |
| γ9 | -33.2457 | -2.03** |
| γ10 | 28.1430 | 3.58*** |
0.400
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2830 | 2.27** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2582 | 2.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1415 | 0.85 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 13.0925 | 0.40 |
| γ2 | -47.0045 | -0.97 |
| γ3 | 78.3488 | 2.98*** |
| γ4 | -72.1136 | -4.19*** |
| γ5 | 31.8854 | 2.47** |
| γ6 | -3.7315 | -0.35 |
| γ7 | 5.0125 | 0.35 |
| γ8 | 6.2982 | 0.34 |
| γ9 | -33.2457 | -2.03** |
| γ10 | 28.1430 | 3.58*** |
Persistence:
0.400
Half-life:
1 days
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