V-Lab
Global Mofy AI Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
240.42%
decreased by 2.90%
1 Week
282.05%
increased by 38.73%
1 Month
302.20%
increased by 58.88%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 10, 2023 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1274 | 2.47** |
| αARCH | 0.3073 | 3.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.2389 | 1.50 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 4.0247 | 0.15 |
| γ2 | -30.7858 | -0.73 |
| γ3 | 67.6045 | 2.73*** |
| γ4 | -71.9140 | -4.24*** |
| γ5 | 40.3111 | 2.67*** |
| γ6 | -7.5879 | -0.61 |
| γ7 | 2.6034 | 0.28 |
| γ8 | 0.0857 | 0.01 |
| γ9 | -11.8469 | -1.36 |
0.546
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1274 | 2.47** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3073 | 3.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2389 | 1.50 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 4.0247 | 0.15 |
| γ2 | -30.7858 | -0.73 |
| γ3 | 67.6045 | 2.73*** |
| γ4 | -71.9140 | -4.24*** |
| γ5 | 40.3111 | 2.67*** |
| γ6 | -7.5879 | -0.61 |
| γ7 | 2.6034 | 0.28 |
| γ8 | 0.0857 | 0.01 |
| γ9 | -11.8469 | -1.36 |
Persistence:
0.546
Half-life:
1 days
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