V-Lab
Global Mofy AI Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
277.54%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
316.64%
increased by 38.71%
1 Month
331.53%
increased by 53.60%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 10, 2023 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1146 | 2.34** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2732 | 2.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1718 | 0.79 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 8.7662 | 0.29 |
| γ2 | -40.3325 | -0.89 |
| γ3 | 75.6634 | 2.94*** |
| γ4 | -74.4102 | -4.32*** |
| γ5 | 37.4519 | 2.77*** |
| γ6 | -6.5939 | -0.64 |
| γ7 | 4.6925 | 0.41 |
| γ8 | 3.5732 | 0.23 |
| γ9 | -20.0082 | -1.47 |
Persistence:
0.445
Half-life:
1 days
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