V-Lab
Global Mofy AI Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
135.16%
increased by 15.61%
1 Week
143.09%
increased by 23.54%
1 Month
147.49%
increased by 27.94%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 10, 2023 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1162 | 2.52** |
| αARCH | 0.3141 | 3.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.2560 | 1.87* |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 2.2834 | 0.09 |
| γ2 | -27.3724 | -0.68 |
| γ3 | 64.6531 | 2.67*** |
| γ4 | -70.7575 | -4.26*** |
| γ5 | 41.5496 | 2.69*** |
| γ6 | -9.5302 | -0.71 |
| γ7 | 5.1134 | 0.50 |
| γ8 | -5.3430 | -0.62 |
| γ9 | -6.0592 | -0.83 |
0.570
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1162 | 2.52** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3141 | 3.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2560 | 1.87* |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 2.2834 | 0.09 |
| γ2 | -27.3724 | -0.68 |
| γ3 | 64.6531 | 2.67*** |
| γ4 | -70.7575 | -4.26*** |
| γ5 | 41.5496 | 2.69*** |
| γ6 | -9.5302 | -0.71 |
| γ7 | 5.1134 | 0.50 |
| γ8 | -5.3430 | -0.62 |
| γ9 | -6.0592 | -0.83 |
Persistence:
0.570
Half-life:
1 days
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