V-Lab
Global Mofy AI Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
124.81%
decreased by 2.80%
1 Week
154.13%
increased by 26.52%
1 Month
360.73%
increased by 233.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 10, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9088 | 208.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1303 | 14.91*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.74 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8631 | 1.03 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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