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Global Mofy AI Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

107.45%

decreased by 1.32%

1 Week

109.36%

increased by 0.59%

1 Month

116.66%

increased by 7.89%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Global Mofy AI Ltd GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 10, 2023 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1386294 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8187
1.34
αARCH0.0569
0.76
βGARCH0.9267
18.81***
γleverage0.0328
0.43

1.000

Persistence

1386294d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8187
1.34
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0569
0.76
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9267
18.81***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0328
0.43

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days