V-Lab
Global Mofy AI Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
340.91%
decreased by 10.22%
1 Week
341.37%
decreased by 9.76%
1 Month
343.20%
decreased by 7.93%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 10, 2023 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6222 | 2.29** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0491 | 3.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9391 | 68.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0235 | 1.13 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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