Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Global Mofy AI Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

134.32%

decreased by 3.68%

1 Week

135.80%

decreased by 2.20%

1 Month

141.51%

increased by 3.51%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Global Mofy AI Ltd APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 10, 2023 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 609 trading days (~2.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~609 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.6691
0.39
αARCH0.0686
1.24
βGARCH0.9314
14.28***
γleverage0.1504
0.38
δpower1.8984
2.62***

0.999

Persistence

609d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6691
0.39
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0686
1.24
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9314
14.28***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1504
0.38
δ

power

Transformation power

1.8984
2.62***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

609 days