V-Lab
Global Mofy AI Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
134.32%
decreased by 3.68%
1 Week
135.80%
decreased by 2.20%
1 Month
141.51%
increased by 3.51%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 10, 2023 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 609 trading days (~2.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
APARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~609 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6691 | 0.39 |
| αARCH | 0.0686 | 1.24 |
| βGARCH | 0.9314 | 14.28*** |
| γleverage | 0.1504 | 0.38 |
| δpower | 1.8984 | 2.62*** |
0.999
Persistence609d
Half-lifeσ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6691 | 0.39 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0686 | 1.24 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9314 | 14.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1504 | 0.38 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.8984 | 2.62*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
609 days
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