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Global Mofy AI Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

118.41%

decreased by 8.28%

1 Week

123.55%

decreased by 3.14%

1 Month

140.02%

increased by 13.33%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Global Mofy AI Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 10, 2023 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 33 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 33 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.72 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 33-day half-lifev = 2.72 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst176.1066
0.96
αARCH0.1538
10.63***
βGARCH0.9791
52.01***
νDF2.7216
9.06***

0.979

Persistence

33d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

176.1066
0.96
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1538
10.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9791
52.01***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.7216
9.06***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days