V-Lab
Global Mofy AI Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
100.30%
increased by 11.42%
1 Week
106.79%
increased by 17.91%
1 Month
126.79%
increased by 37.91%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 10, 2023 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 32 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 32 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 32-day half-lifev = 2.74 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 166.9071 | 0.94 |
| αARCH | 0.1534 | 10.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9786 | 49.72*** |
| νDF | 2.7410 | 8.61*** |
0.979
Persistence32d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 166.9071 | 0.94 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1534 | 10.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9786 | 49.72*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.7410 | 8.61*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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