Global Mofy AI Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
174.22%
increased by 22.88%
1 Week
175.03%
increased by 23.69%
1 Month
177.78%
increased by 26.44%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 10, 2023 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 28 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 28 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.75 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 28-day half-lifev = 2.75 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 152.8211 | 0.88 |
| αscore | 0.1533 | 9.63*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9758 | 40.38*** |
| νDF | 2.7549 | 7.53*** |
0.976
Persistence28d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 152.8211 | 0.88 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1533 | 9.63*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9758 | 40.38*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.7549 | 7.53*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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