V-Lab
System1 Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
299.15%
increased by 88.74%
1 Week
306.04%
increased by 95.63%
1 Month
325.24%
increased by 114.83%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 17, 2020 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2398 | 2.50** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1853 | 4.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7645 | 20.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -6.5259 | -2.20** |
| γ2 | 19.2367 | 5.06*** |
| γ3 | -24.2915 | -7.16*** |
| γ4 | 17.7018 | 3.19*** |
| γ5 | -10.4050 | -2.23** |
| γ6 | 7.6613 | 2.63*** |
| γ7 | -6.7536 | -2.49** |
| γ8 | 9.5557 | 2.60*** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
13 days
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