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V-Lab

System1 Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

299.15%

increased by 88.74%

1 Week

306.04%

increased by 95.63%

1 Month

325.24%

increased by 114.83%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of System1 Inc SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 17, 2020 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2398
2.50**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1853
4.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7645
20.97***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-6.5259
-2.20**
γ219.2367
5.06***
γ3-24.2915
-7.16***
γ417.7018
3.19***
γ5-10.4050
-2.23**
γ67.6613
2.63***
γ7-6.7536
-2.49**
γ89.5557
2.60***

Persistence:

0.950

Half-life:

13 days