V-Lab
System1 Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
100.25%
decreased by 9.24%
1 Week
100.13%
decreased by 9.36%
1 Month
99.66%
decreased by 9.83%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 17, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 511 trading days (~2.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.06 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.1171 | 10.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1199 | 58.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9986 | 7,133.17*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.0627 | 206.26*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
511 days
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