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V-Lab

System1 Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

100.25%

decreased by 9.24%

1 Week

100.13%

decreased by 9.36%

1 Month

99.66%

decreased by 9.83%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

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graph of System1 Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 17, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 511 trading days (~2.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.06 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.1171
10.68***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1199
58.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9986
7,133.17***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.0627
206.26***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

511 days