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V-Lab

System1 Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

140.00%

decreased by 8.54%

1 Week

140.14%

decreased by 8.40%

1 Month

140.70%

decreased by 7.84%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of System1 Inc GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 17, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0783
3.28***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0949
7.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8801
146.12***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0500
1.55

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-