V-Lab
System1 Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
153.96%
decreased by 11.85%
1 Week
164.35%
decreased by 1.46%
1 Month
198.11%
increased by 32.30%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 17, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 58 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3566 | 2.02** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2052 | 6.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7830 | 28.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -17.3597 | -2.58*** |
| γ2 | 43.6672 | 3.25*** |
| γ3 | -44.0481 | -2.57** |
| γ4 | 22.2581 | 1.54 |
| γ5 | -5.3696 | -0.63 |
| γ6 | -0.4251 | -0.08 |
| γ7 | 2.5672 | 0.61 |
| γ8 | -0.5993 | -0.14 |
| γ9 | -1.7366 | -0.46 |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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