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V-Lab

System1 Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

153.96%

decreased by 11.85%

1 Week

164.35%

decreased by 1.46%

1 Month

198.11%

increased by 32.30%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of System1 Inc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 17, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 58 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3566
2.02**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2052
6.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7830
28.17***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-17.3597
-2.58***
γ243.6672
3.25***
γ3-44.0481
-2.57**
γ422.2581
1.54
γ5-5.3696
-0.63
γ6-0.4251
-0.08
γ72.5672
0.61
γ8-0.5993
-0.14
γ9-1.7366
-0.46

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

58 days