V-Lab
Ford Motor Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
38.27%
increased by 0.33%
1 Week
38.39%
increased by 0.45%
1 Month
38.73%
increased by 0.79%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6734 | 7.97*** |
| αARCH | 0.0650 | 7.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8905 | 47.84*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0841 | -2.24** |
| γ2 | 0.1472 | 2.57** |
| γ3 | -0.0885 | -2.08** |
| γ4 | -0.0013 | -0.03 |
| γ5 | 0.0896 | 1.95* |
| γ6 | -0.1635 | -3.50*** |
| γ7 | 0.1623 | 3.22*** |
| γ8 | -0.0142 | -0.29 |
| γ9 | -0.1137 | -2.40** |
| γ10 | 0.0830 | 2.31** |
0.955
Persistence15d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6734 | 7.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0650 | 7.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8905 | 47.84*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0841 | -2.24** |
| γ2 | 0.1472 | 2.57** |
| γ3 | -0.0885 | -2.08** |
| γ4 | -0.0013 | -0.03 |
| γ5 | 0.0896 | 1.95* |
| γ6 | -0.1635 | -3.50*** |
| γ7 | 0.1623 | 3.22*** |
| γ8 | -0.0142 | -0.29 |
| γ9 | -0.1137 | -2.40** |
| γ10 | 0.0830 | 2.31** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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