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Ford Motor Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

38.27%

increased by 0.33%

1 Week

38.39%

increased by 0.45%

1 Month

38.73%

increased by 0.79%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ford Motor Co S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.6734
7.97***
αARCH0.0650
7.18***
βGARCH0.8905
47.84***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.0841
-2.24**
γ20.1472
2.57**
γ3-0.0885
-2.08**
γ4-0.0013
-0.03
γ50.0896
1.95*
γ6-0.1635
-3.50***
γ70.1623
3.22***
γ8-0.0142
-0.29
γ9-0.1137
-2.40**
γ100.0830
2.31**

0.955

Persistence

15d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6734
7.97***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0650
7.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8905
47.84***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.0841
-2.24**
γ20.1472
2.57**
γ3-0.0885
-2.08**
γ4-0.0013
-0.03
γ50.0896
1.95*
γ6-0.1635
-3.50***
γ70.1623
3.22***
γ8-0.0142
-0.29
γ9-0.1137
-2.40**
γ100.0830
2.31**

Persistence:

0.955

Half-life:

15 days