V-Lab
Walt Disney Co/The Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
29.88%
increased by 0.47%
1 Week
30.04%
increased by 0.63%
1 Month
30.51%
increased by 1.10%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8482 | 6.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0691 | 6.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8771 | 40.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0345 | -1.05 |
| γ2 | 0.0947 | 2.05** |
| γ3 | -0.1581 | -5.36*** |
| γ4 | 0.1788 | 6.17*** |
| γ5 | -0.1383 | -4.21*** |
| γ6 | 0.1147 | 2.52** |
| γ7 | -0.0820 | -1.79* |
| γ8 | 0.0232 | 0.83 |
Persistence:
0.946
Half-life:
13 days
Other Walt Disney Co/The Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equities