V-Lab
Walt Disney Co/The Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
29.44%
decreased by 0.97%
1 Week
29.64%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Month
30.19%
decreased by 0.22%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8499 | 6.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0689 | 6.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8775 | 41.29*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0334 | -1.02 |
| γ2 | 0.0925 | 2.01** |
| γ3 | -0.1562 | -5.31*** |
| γ4 | 0.1775 | 6.16*** |
| γ5 | -0.1381 | -4.26*** |
| γ6 | 0.1157 | 2.56** |
| γ7 | -0.0846 | -1.85* |
| γ8 | 0.0256 | 0.91 |
Persistence:
0.946
Half-life:
13 days
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