V-Lab
Mondelez International Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
21.39%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Week
21.91%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Month
22.74%
increased by 0.48%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2001 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1506 | 8.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0992 | 5.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7459 | 15.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.1691 | -1.97** |
| γ2 | 0.3965 | 2.97*** |
| γ3 | -0.4611 | -5.61*** |
| γ4 | 0.4197 | 6.84*** |
| γ5 | -0.2746 | -4.08*** |
| γ6 | 0.0976 | 1.19 |
| γ7 | -0.0030 | -0.03 |
| γ8 | 0.0203 | 0.24 |
| γ9 | -0.0499 | -0.89 |
Persistence:
0.845
Half-life:
4 days
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