V-Lab
Mondelez International Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
23.33%
decreased by 1.17%
1 Week
23.23%
decreased by 1.27%
1 Month
23.06%
decreased by 1.44%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2001 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1451 | 8.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0992 | 5.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7467 | 15.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.1740 | -2.01** |
| γ2 | 0.4041 | 3.00*** |
| γ3 | -0.4639 | -5.61*** |
| γ4 | 0.4173 | 6.75*** |
| γ5 | -0.2685 | -3.91*** |
| γ6 | 0.0910 | 1.09 |
| γ7 | 0.0016 | 0.02 |
| γ8 | 0.0167 | 0.19 |
| γ9 | -0.0468 | -0.83 |
Persistence:
0.846
Half-life:
4 days
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