V-Lab
Mondelez International Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
27.63%
decreased by 1.62%
1 Week
27.14%
decreased by 2.11%
1 Month
25.58%
decreased by 3.67%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2001 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.45 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7361 | 7.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0817 | 17.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9565 | 156.13*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.4532 | 6.49*** |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
16 days
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