V-Lab
Mondelez International Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
19.75%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
19.85%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Month
20.14%
decreased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2001 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.47 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-lifev = 4.47 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7322 | 1.84* |
| αARCH | 0.0811 | 4.45*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9570 | 39.49*** |
| νDF | 4.4683 | 1.61 |
0.957
Persistence16d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7322 | 1.84* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0811 | 4.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9570 | 39.49*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.4683 | 1.61 |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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