V-Lab
News Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
31.14%
decreased by 2.12%
1 Week
29.84%
decreased by 3.42%
1 Month
27.77%
decreased by 5.49%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2013 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0883 | 6.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1467 | 4.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6789 | 7.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 1.0430 | 2.66*** |
| γ2 | -1.7413 | -2.81*** |
| γ3 | 1.2089 | 2.16** |
| γ4 | -0.8030 | -1.04 |
| γ5 | 0.3624 | 0.49 |
| γ6 | 0.0547 | 0.12 |
| γ7 | -0.5642 | -1.63 |
| γ8 | 0.8774 | 2.77*** |
| γ9 | -0.5643 | -2.53** |
Persistence:
0.826
Half-life:
4 days
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