V-Lab
Pasqal Holding SA Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
600.73%
increased by 1.63%
1 Week
603.95%
increased by 4.85%
1 Month
616.54%
increased by 17.44%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 03:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 2026 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 381 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~381 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3698 | 2.45** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9982 | 7.16*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 129.6741 | 0.09 |
| γ2 | -584.9879 | -0.33 |
| γ3 | 850.7400 | 1.26 |
| γ4 | -555.5144 | -0.71 |
| γ5 | 659.4334 | 0.87 |
| γ6 | -1,244.2814 | -1.96** |
| γ7 | 1,082.6467 | 1.96** |
| γ8 | -713.6279 | -1.40 |
| γ9 | 2,046.5731 | 3.77*** |
0.998
Persistence381d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3698 | 2.45** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9982 | 7.16*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 129.6741 | 0.09 |
| γ2 | -584.9879 | -0.33 |
| γ3 | 850.7400 | 1.26 |
| γ4 | -555.5144 | -0.71 |
| γ5 | 659.4334 | 0.87 |
| γ6 | -1,244.2814 | -1.96** |
| γ7 | 1,082.6467 | 1.96** |
| γ8 | -713.6279 | -1.40 |
| γ9 | 2,046.5731 | 3.77*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
381 days
Other Pasqal Holding SA Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equities