V-Lab
Keel Infrastructure Corp Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
103.16%
increased by 0.07%
1 Week
105.62%
increased by 2.53%
1 Month
109.61%
increased by 6.52%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 21, 2021 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1847 | 9.64*** |
| αARCH | 0.0681 | 2.53** |
| βGARCH | 0.7810 | 9.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0450 | 1.72* |
0.849
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1847 | 9.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0681 | 2.53** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7810 | 9.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0450 | 1.72* |
Persistence:
0.849
Half-life:
4 days
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