V-Lab
Keel Infrastructure Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
95.39%
decreased by 1.76%
1 Week
97.72%
increased by 0.57%
1 Month
99.81%
increased by 2.66%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 21, 2021 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.0853 | 3.10*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7144 | 6.72*** |
| γleverage | 0.0006 | 0.01 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.40 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0783 | 0.41 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.6802 | 0.88 |
0.800
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0853 | 3.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7144 | 6.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0006 | 0.01 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.40 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0783 | 0.41 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6802 | 0.88 |
Persistence:
0.800
Half-life:
3 days
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