V-Lab
Millennium GP International Hlngs Ltd Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
94.79%
decreased by 11.70%
1 Week
107.26%
increased by 0.77%
1 Month
146.92%
increased by 40.43%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 4, 2023 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 7.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4006 | 10.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6569 | 46.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1149 | -1.74* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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