V-Lab
Millennium GP International Hlngs Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
95.13%
increased by 11.40%
1 Week
99.66%
increased by 15.93%
1 Month
107.53%
increased by 23.80%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 4, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.89 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 51.0974 | 3.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2236 | 11.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8685 | 23.85*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.8920 | 10.47*** |
Persistence:
0.868
Half-life:
5 days
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