V-Lab
Millennium GP International Hlngs Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
85.24%
increased by 1.16%
1 Week
100.31%
increased by 16.23%
1 Month
111.70%
increased by 27.62%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 4, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4108 | 2.08** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4934 | 2.24** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1987 | 1.24 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 7.2769 | 0.40 |
| γ2 | -0.2656 | -0.01 |
| γ3 | -29.8013 | -1.48 |
| γ4 | 40.1550 | 2.29** |
| γ5 | -15.1375 | -1.31 |
| γ6 | -16.5830 | -1.30 |
| γ7 | 35.2604 | 2.43** |
| γ8 | -40.9643 | -3.22*** |
| γ9 | 31.8375 | 3.01*** |
| γ10 | -14.9496 | -1.99** |
Persistence:
0.692
Half-life:
2 days
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