V-Lab
AES Corp/VA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
8.39%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
8.94%
increased by 0.41%
1 Month
10.85%
increased by 2.32%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 1991 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 559 trading days (~2.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.09 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 15.5458 | 9.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0627 | 84.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9988 | 7,802.82*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.0876 | 44.34*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
559 days
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