V-Lab
Stran & Company Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
53.98%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
54.52%
increased by 0.29%
1 Month
56.55%
increased by 2.32%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 17, 1999 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 197 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 139% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1555 | 6.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0686 | 8.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9478 | 289.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0399 | -3.78*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
197 days
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