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V-Lab

Stran & Company Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

72.37%

increased by 6.29%

1 Week

73.79%

increased by 7.71%

1 Month

79.17%

increased by 13.09%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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graph of Stran & Company Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 17, 1999 to Jul 24, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

432.3423
8.41***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1350
105.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
8,538.46***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.9885
151.42***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days