V-Lab
Gorilla Techno Gro Inc -Redh APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
109.11%
1 Week
126.59%
1 Month
180.86%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 9, 2021 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. The volatility power δ = 0.71 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4426 | 1.74* |
| αARCH | 0.2767 | 2.46** |
| βGARCH | 0.7233 | 5.93*** |
| γleverage | -0.2723 | -0.93 |
| δpower | 0.7062 | 1.96* |
0.943
Persistence12d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4426 | 1.74* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2767 | 2.46** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7233 | 5.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2723 | -0.93 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.7062 | 1.96* |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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