V-Lab
Wal-Mart Stores Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
52.74%
decreased by 3.54%
1 Week
49.84%
decreased by 6.44%
1 Month
41.66%
decreased by 14.62%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0212 | 8.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8205 | 60.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0879 | 15.25*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0304 | 1.33 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0663 | 1.50 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9211 | 17.26*** |
Persistence:
0.886
Half-life:
6 days
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