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V-Lab

Howmet Aerospace Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

33.24%

decreased by 0.51%

1 Week

33.35%

decreased by 0.40%

1 Month

33.75%

decreased by 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Howmet Aerospace Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 302% more than positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0161
11.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9499
690.80***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0485
19.94***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

5.8476
101.67***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

70 days