Howmet Aerospace Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
39.19%
decreased by 0.83%
1 Week
39.18%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Month
39.12%
decreased by 0.90%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:20 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 294% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 294% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| αARCH | 0.0165 | 2.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9490 | 172.21*** |
| γleverage | 0.0486 | 4.79*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 5.8420 | 6.93*** |
0.990
Persistence68d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0165 | 2.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9490 | 172.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0486 | 4.79*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.8420 | 6.93*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
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