V-Lab
Howmet Aerospace Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
57.41%
decreased by 1.21%
1 Week
57.10%
decreased by 1.52%
1 Month
55.95%
decreased by 2.67%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 310% more than positive returns
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~70 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 310% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| αARCH | 0.0161 | 2.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9491 | 173.63*** |
| γleverage | 0.0500 | 4.92*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 5.9676 | 6.69*** |
0.990
Persistence70d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0161 | 2.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9491 | 173.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0500 | 4.92*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.9676 | 6.69*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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