V-Lab
Howmet Aerospace Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
31.99%
increased by 1.44%
1 Week
32.13%
increased by 1.58%
1 Month
32.64%
increased by 2.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 301% more than positive returns
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0161 | 11.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9498 | 690.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0485 | 19.94*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.8544 | 101.50*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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