V-Lab
Howmet Aerospace Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
28.51%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
28.73%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Month
29.57%
increased by 0.62%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 302% more than positive returns
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0162 | 11.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9496 | 687.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0488 | 19.99*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.8565 | 101.34*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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