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V-Lab

Howmet Aerospace Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

57.41%

decreased by 1.21%

1 Week

57.10%

decreased by 1.52%

1 Month

55.95%

decreased by 2.67%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Howmet Aerospace Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 310% more than positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~70 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 310% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
αARCH0.0161
2.89***
βGARCH0.9491
173.63***
γleverage0.0500
4.92***
λ₁tau intercept5.9676
6.69***

0.990

Persistence

70d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0161
2.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9491
173.63***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0500
4.92***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

5.9676
6.69***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

70 days