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Howmet Aerospace Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

39.19%

decreased by 0.83%

1 Week

39.18%

decreased by 0.84%

1 Month

39.12%

decreased by 0.90%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:20 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Howmet Aerospace Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 294% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 294% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
αARCH0.0165
2.96***
βGARCH0.9490
172.21***
γleverage0.0486
4.79***
λ₁tau intercept5.8420
6.93***

0.990

Persistence

68d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0165
2.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9490
172.21***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0486
4.79***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

5.8420
6.93***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

68 days