V-Lab
Tingo Group Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
1,659.72%
increased by 62.23%
1 Week
1,822.86%
increased by 225.37%
1 Month
2,364.00%
increased by 766.51%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 12:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 28, 2004 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1523 trading days (~6.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1523 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8269 | 3.68*** |
| αARCH | 0.1870 | 5.13*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8126 | 21.41*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.6248 | 0.19 |
| γ2 | -1.0939 | -0.28 |
| γ3 | 0.8504 | 0.73 |
| γ4 | -0.7589 | -0.99 |
| γ5 | 0.3938 | 0.56 |
| γ6 | -0.4386 | -0.55 |
| γ7 | 2.4812 | 2.60*** |
| γ8 | -3.9496 | -2.65*** |
| γ9 | 3.0318 | 1.31 |
1.000
Persistence1523d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8269 | 3.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1870 | 5.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8126 | 21.41*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.6248 | 0.19 |
| γ2 | -1.0939 | -0.28 |
| γ3 | 0.8504 | 0.73 |
| γ4 | -0.7589 | -0.99 |
| γ5 | 0.3938 | 0.56 |
| γ6 | -0.4386 | -0.55 |
| γ7 | 2.4812 | 2.60*** |
| γ8 | -3.9496 | -2.65*** |
| γ9 | 3.0318 | 1.31 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1523 days
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