V-Lab
Apple Inc MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
27.14%
increased by 0.50%
1 Week
27.75%
increased by 1.11%
1 Month
29.97%
increased by 3.33%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 85 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0911 | 7.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1903 | 51.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8017 | 286.71*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
85 days
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