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V-Lab

Apple Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

25.62%

decreased by 0.91%

1 Week

26.20%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Month

27.83%

increased by 1.30%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Apple Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow66
αARCH0.0275
2.40**
βGARCH0.8526
55.24***
γleverage0.1158
5.71***
λ₁tau intercept0.0020
0.65
λ₂forecast adj.0.0131
3.04***
λ₃tau persistence0.9867
236.23***

0.938

Persistence

11d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0275
2.40**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8526
55.24***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1158
5.71***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0020
0.65
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0131
3.04***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9867
236.23***

Persistence:

0.938

Half-life:

11 days