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V-Lab

Apple Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

23.29%

decreased by 0.45%

1 Week

24.14%

increased by 0.40%

1 Month

26.46%

increased by 2.72%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 09:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Apple Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0276
2.40**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8524
55.21***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1159
5.71***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0019
0.63
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0129
3.05***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9869
239.12***

Persistence:

0.938

Half-life:

11 days