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V-Lab

Apple Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

26.04%

decreased by 0.99%

1 Week

26.50%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Month

27.88%

increased by 0.85%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Apple Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0274
9.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8531
190.84***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1157
20.30***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0019
2.00**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0130
6.86***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9868
511.29***

Persistence:

0.938

Half-life:

11 days