V-Lab
Apple Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
44.30%
decreased by 2.90%
1 Week
43.00%
decreased by 4.20%
1 Month
39.29%
decreased by 7.91%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0282 | 9.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8528 | 192.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1164 | 20.29*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0020 | 2.08** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0131 | 7.05*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9867 | 520.12*** |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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