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V-Lab
V-Lab

Apple Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

25.24%

decreased by 0.72%

1 Week

25.83%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Month

27.42%

increased by 1.46%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Apple Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow66
αARCH0.0274
2.39**
βGARCH0.8528
55.45***
γleverage0.1159
5.73***
λ₁tau intercept0.0018
0.61
λ₂forecast adj.0.0128
3.06***
λ₃tau persistence0.9870
242.68***

0.938

Persistence

11d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0274
2.39**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8528
55.45***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1159
5.73***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0018
0.61
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0128
3.06***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9870
242.68***

Persistence:

0.938

Half-life:

11 days