V-Lab
Apple Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
25.24%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Week
25.83%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
27.42%
increased by 1.46%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.0274 | 2.39** |
| βGARCH | 0.8528 | 55.45*** |
| γleverage | 0.1159 | 5.73*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0018 | 0.61 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0128 | 3.06*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9870 | 242.68*** |
0.938
Persistence11d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0274 | 2.39** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8528 | 55.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1159 | 5.73*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0018 | 0.61 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0128 | 3.06*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9870 | 242.68*** |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
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