V-Lab
Apple Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
26.04%
decreased by 0.99%
1 Week
26.50%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Month
27.88%
increased by 0.85%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0274 | 9.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8531 | 190.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1157 | 20.30*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0019 | 2.00** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0130 | 6.86*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9868 | 511.29*** |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
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