V-Lab
Apple Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
34.44%
decreased by 1.24%
1 Week
34.52%
decreased by 1.16%
1 Month
34.87%
decreased by 0.81%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 247 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
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GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 8.9971 | 6.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0487 | 74.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9972 | 2,432.20*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.7397 | 30.14*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
247 days
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