V-Lab
Apple Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
27.03%
decreased by 1.04%
1 Week
27.19%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Month
27.78%
decreased by 0.29%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 248 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 8.8241 | 6.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0482 | 74.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9972 | 2,414.54*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.7360 | 29.93*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
248 days
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