V-Lab
Apple Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
27.11%
increased by 1.43%
1 Week
27.70%
increased by 2.02%
1 Month
29.87%
increased by 4.19%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 97 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~97 daysAsymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0044 | 0.20 |
| αARCH | 0.0724 | 11.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9205 | 138.61*** |
| γleverage | 1.0627 | 6.19*** |
0.993
Persistence97d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0044 | 0.20 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0724 | 11.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9205 | 138.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0627 | 6.19*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
97 days
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