Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Apple Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

27.11%

increased by 1.43%

1 Week

27.70%

increased by 2.02%

1 Month

29.87%

increased by 4.19%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Apple Inc AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 97 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~97 daysAsymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0044
0.20
αARCH0.0724
11.09***
βGARCH0.9205
138.61***
γleverage1.0627
6.19***

0.993

Persistence

97d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0044
0.20
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0724
11.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9205
138.61***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.0627
6.19***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

97 days